Per MLS: 8 homes closed escrow

2297 square foot house on Cattail for: $475,000  ($206.79 per square foot)
It was first listed for sale 8/10/2006 for $749,900 – with the following price reductions: $715,000 (9/20/2006); $685,000 (10/24/2006); $633,000 (12/18/2006); $599,999 (2/25/2007); $569,990 (5/14/2007); $559,000 (6/21/2007); $549,000 (7/12/2007); $555,000 (7/12/2007); $545,000 (8/22/2007); $525,000 (8/30/2007); $524,900 (8/31/2007) – going pending on 10/22/2007 – with a final sales price $274,000 less then original list price 14 months back.

3771 square foot new home on Salt Mission for $455,000 ($120.66 per square foot)
First listed in MLS 2/13/2007 for $561,990 – selling in 203 days for $106,990 less.  New owner got almost 100% financing.

1858 square foot new home on Quail Creek for $342,500 ($184.33 per square foot)
First listed in MLS 6/8/2007 for $402,990 – selling in 49 days for $60,490 less.

2677 square foot home on Zaharias for: $320,000 ($119.54 per square foot)
This was a lender REO with a prior sale 3/31/2005 for $460,000 (selling now for $140,000 less in 31 months = a loss of value of $4516 per month).  House was first listed for sale 3/16/2006 for $505,000 – taking 288 days to sell with 13 price reductions, and selling for $19,000 below the final list price.

1795 square foot home on Cherrylaurel for: $270,000 ($150.42 per square foot)
A lender REO originally listed for sale 11/27/2006 at $410,000 – on the market 256 days – selling in the end for $140,000 less then the original list price.

1070 square foot 2 bedroom, 2 bath home sold for $265,000 ($247.66 per square foot) on Red Mahogany was originally listed for sale 11/22/2006 at $325,000 – taking 304 days to sell – in the end for $60,000 below original list price.  New owner purchased with 100% financing.

1308 square foot home on Shady Glen for: $253,000 ($193.43 per square foot)
It took 90 days to sell with an original list price of $289,900 – per MLS seller paid $10,000 of buyer’s closing costs with 100% financing.

1420 square foot home on Hartland for: $247,000 ($173.94 per square foot)
Another lender REO with a prior sale on 2/27/2006 for $385,000 – with is $138,000 more than recent sale 20 months later = a loss of $6900 a month. It was originally listed on 29 days at: $259,900 – with no price reductions, but sold for $12,900 below the list price.

4 homes went pending

A lender REO 2034 square foot home on Snowbell – with a final list price of: $309,900
Prior sale $440,000 (5/12/2006) – a decline of $130,100 in 17 months (= $7653 per month).  Has been listed 192 days – starting at $414,900.

1317 square foot home on Rena – with a final list price of: $249,900 – listed 108 days with an original price of $270,000.

A lender REO 1512 square foot home on Gorrion – with a final list price of: $247,500
Prior sale 8/11/2006 for $420,000 (that is a drop of  $172,500 in 14 months = $12,321 per month).  The final list price at that time was $372,000 (so it looks like the purchase price was elevated $48,000 in 2006 – with 100% financing – I think that might be mortgage fraud).

Lender REO 1261 square foot home on Mead – with a final list price of: $234,900
Originally listed for sale 7/24/2006 at $369,999 – for a total of 195 days.

14 Notices of Default filed

On the following streets: Calle Agua; Fay: Beal; Dabney; Finley; Tonadilla; Barley; Venetian; Morningside; Myers; Marston; Woodpecker; Canvasback; and Cleveland Bay.

Conclusions and More

Of the 12 sold and pending sales on day in Moreno Valley – 6 (1/2) are lender REOs.  2 of the ones that sold (1/4) had 100% financing.  2 of the sold homes were new homes.  Of the 12 solds and pending sales only 1 sold in less than 1 month; 4 total sales under 100 days; 3 took between 100 and 200 days to sell; 3 sold between 200 and 300 days; and 1 took 304 days to sell and the home on Cattail took 428 days to sell.  The average time on the market was: 180 days (6 months).  The chart below shows the number of closed sales, pending sales and notices of default filed on one day for Moreno Valley homes: 10/26/2007.

1

Data Quick just came out with the October 2007 sales data – it is not good!  Only 81 homes sold in Moreno Valley for the month (in Oct 2006 289 homes sold) – with prices down in 1 year:

18.4% for zip code 92551                    17% for zip code 92553           23.3% for zip code 92555
23.5% for zip code 92557

That on average equals a drop in prices in 1-year (October 2006 to October 2007) in Moreno Valley of 20.9% or on average 1.745% per month – on a $400,000 house that would be almost $7000 per month or almost $84,000 in 1 year.  The average sales price per square foot is now: $186.

This chart is median Moreno Valley home prices from Dqnews for every October since 1988

2

This chart is for zip code 92557 since January 2005 for the median sales prices – with a trend line showing the increase in prices and then the decline.

3

Taking 3 of the recent sales and pulling model match sales – this is what I found:

For the 2677 square foot home on Zaharias sales by date =
8/2002             $257,900                     up        $62,100  in 5 years, 2 months
1/2003             $282,000                     up        $38,000 in 4 years, 9 months
10/2004           $449,900                     down    $129,900 in 3 years
10/2005           $477,000                     down    $157,000 in 2 years
2/2006             $479,900                     down    $159,000 in 1 year, 8 months
1/2007             $424,500                     down    $104,500 in 9 months
10/2007           $320,000         down    $159,900 from the high in 20 months = – $7995 per month

For the 1795 square foot home on Cherrylaurel
2/2005             $350,000
4/2005             $359,000
4/2005             $367,000
5/2005             $369,000
5/2005             $375,000
6/2005             $369,000
6/2005             $369,000
7/2005             $380,000
8/2005             $384,900
8/2005             $387,500
8/2005             $390,000
8/2005             $399,000
9/2005             $415,000
10/2005           $398,999
12/2005           $411,000
3/2006             $389,000
3/2006             $419,000
3/2006             $420,000
5/2006             $419,900
5/2006             $429,000         high      up $79,000 in 1 year, 3 months = + $5267 per month
6/2006             $409,000
10/2006           $415,000
10/2006           $415,000
3/2007             $369,900
10/2007           $335,000
10/2007           $310,000
10/2007           $270,000         down $159,000 in 1year, 4 months = – $9937.50 a month

For the 1070 square foot home on Red Mahogany
8/2002             $127,500
11/2002           $129,600
9/2003             $145,000
4/2004             $210,000
7/2004             $210,000
11/2004           $225,000
11/2004           $250,000
6/2005             $270,000
11/2005           $285,000
11/2005           $288,000
12/2005           $290,500
6/2006             $314,000
9/2006             $320,000         high      up $192,500 in 4 years, 1 month = + $3928 per month
10/2007           $265,000         down    $55,000 in 1 year, 1 month = – $4231 per month

On 11/30/2007 there were 88 single family homes listed for sale in Moreno Valley priced at $200,000 or less; with an average price per square foot of: $178; with 12 pending sales – with an average list price per square foot of: $164; but only 2 sales since 1-1-2007 for $200,000 or less.  Looking at the data – we see a large inventory of homes for sale, long marketing times, few sales per month, dropping prices, under cutting prices and future foreclosures – insuring prices will continue downward for some time, until the number of home sales per day adequately exceeds the number of new listings per day.

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