We’re #1! What? That’s Not A Good Thing?

Riverside, San Bernardino, Ontario Home Prices: 60% Chance They’ll Be Lower in Two Years

The Fall 2007 PMI Mortgage Insurance’s Economic Real Estate Trends – just came out. “PMI’s U.S. Market Risk Index ranks the likelihood of home price declines in two years for the nation’s 381 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). It is based on economic factors including home price appreciation, volatility, employment, and affordability.”

“The average risk score for the 50 largest MSAs remains near an all-time high at 329, meaning there is a 32.9% chance home prices across the country will decline. The minor reduction in risk is the result of declining home prices, which slightly improved affordability. Despite this drop, the risk for future price declines among the nation’s largest MSAs remains high. The largest concentrations of risk are in California, Florida, Las Vegas, NV, and Phoenix, AZ.”

Ranked #1 (as the most risky) is: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA at 608 (= 60.8% chance that home prices will be lower in 2-years from now). And we stand alone in the #1 spot.

In the Number 2 spot are: (with risk scores in the 500s)

  • Las Vegas
  • Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine
  • Phoenix
  • L.A.-Long Beach-Glendale
  • Areas in Florida
  • Sacamento area
  • San Diego area
  • Oakland-Fremont-Hayward
  • More areas in Florida
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