Moreno Valley Market Conditions: 10-10-2008

First chart is the median sales price for each August – from 1988 to 2008 from dqnews.com

Next chart is the median sales prices per square foot since January 2008

These 2 charts show the rise and fall of Moreno Valley (California) home prices.  The first over 20 years (using median prices for each August).  The second chart is per square foot for 2008, possibly showing prices starting to stabilize.
This chart breaks down homes by size for sales 45 to 90 days ago; sales from 45 days ago to current pending sales per square foot – this chart does not appear to indicate prices are starting to stabilize.

This chart is the number of Moreno Valley homes for sale; number of sales since 9.10.2008 (from MLS) and the totals of Notices of Default (NOD); Notices of Foreclosure sales (NOT) and bank owned homes (REO) from First American.

This chart shows the number of homes in foreclosure or on the way is almost equal to the number of homes currently for sale, with certainly some of those foreclosures (current or future) are also in the “for sale” category.  Homes are currently selling at a rate of about 13.8 per day –at that rate we have a standing inventory of just over 5 months – and that is good.  A chart on the next page (in red) shows the rate of sales has greatly improved.  Of homes currently listed for sale between 1400 – 1600 square feet about 36% are owner occupied / 51% vacant and 11% rented.  Of the owner occupied only 14% are not reported to be short sales (and most of those are the higher priced listings – where some if priced right might actually also be short sales).  I think over 90% of the homes for sale are distress sales.

Next chart is by quarter for Moreno Valley homes 1400 to 1600 square feet in size: median prices.

This chart is the number of home sold (1400 – 1600sq’) by quarter

As you can see homes prices from the high to the low have loss almost 60% of value.  In contrast between 1990 and 1997 Moreno Valley homes dropped in value about 1/3 – it is almost twice as bad this time – and the decline has happed over a significantly shorter period of time – and it may not be over.  In 2007 the number of sales was way down – and that has improved greatly this year.  In a normal real estate market you will have sellers testing the market; that is not the case right now – as most homes for sale – need to sell, with many of them being or will be lender owned.

I hope this information is useful and I love to answer valuation, market trends and appraisal questions.  I have over 30 years of appraisal experience; the only appraiser in Moreno Valley with the prestigious SRA designation.  I am a certified appraiser (only 23% of Moreno Valley appraisers hold the residential certification license – and in 1-year FHA will only accept appraisals done by certified appraisers).
Beverly A. Bayer, SRA
www.AppraisingMorenoValley.com

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