Moreno Valley Home Prices and Trends May-June 2010

Bayer Facts: June 22, 2010

Provided by Beverly A. Bayer, SRA (appraiser) 951 247-3674

Data shows home prices (after the big drop) are moving up – not only in Moreno Valley, but in the 7 County area.  However, from the high median price (in 2006-2007) in Moreno Valley to the lowest median price in 2009 – for 3 of 4 Moreno Valley zip codes – the $ drop was: $262,500 (68%); $270,000 (73%) and $275,000 (68%).  In the 1990 – 1997 drop the percentage decline was: 39%, 41% and 37%.  And the $ drop more in the range of $79,000.

Although home prices are going up, I am seeing a slight increase in inventory (homes for sale) and a slight slowing in the number of sales – which is (over-all) increasing the months of inventory – in the communities near Moreno Valley, CA.

Changes in Median Moreno Valley Prices over 4-years: May 2006 vs. May 2010

Zip Code	May 2006	May 2010	difference
92551	$375,000	$160,000	-$225,000
92553	$365,000	$140,000	-$225,000
92555	$430,000	$195,000	-$235,000
92557	$385,000	$165,000	-$220,000

Zip Code	92551	92553	92557
Month / year high	March 1990	May 1990	August 1990
High Sales Price	$133,250	$126,500	$146,500
Month / year low	June 1997	March 1997	June 1997
Low Sales Price	$80,750	$75,000	$92,250
New High date	July 2006	January 2007	July 2006
New High price	$387,500	$370,000	$405,000
New low date	July 2009	May 2009	March 2009
New low Price	$125,000	$100,000	$130,000
New High date	May 2010	May 2010	May 2010
New High Price	$160,000	$140,000	$165,000

Chart with above data….

Most of the current listings are short sales and most of the sales are the REOs; based on rate of sales, we have about 2.7 months of Standard Sales in inventory; 38 days of REO inventory and 3 months of short sale inventory.  In the time period from 5/22/2010 to 6/22/2010 only 240 single family homes sold in Moreno Valley – in the same time period 1-year ago 403 homes sold and in 2008 (same time period) 312 homes sold – so fewer homes are selling.  The most interesting change is in the type of sales with an increase in the percentage of short sales in 2010, over 2008 & 2009 (from 8% & 11% 2008/2009 to 35% this year).

National Unemployment: 9.7 in May 2010; it was 9.4% in May 2009, and 5.5% in May 2008.

Riverside / San Bernardino Counties unemployment in April 2010 was: 14.2%, in April 2009: 12.1% and in April 2008: 6.7%.

Above is the percentage of Riverside County families that can afford the median priced home in the County.  In California the affordability rate in the first quarter was: 49 and the National affordability rate for the quarter was 65.  Looking back for each May between 1990 and 2005 the lowest affordability rate in this County was 14 and the highest 56 (the average was 43% rounded).  Foreclosure information is showing a decline in numbers.

Moreno Valley home prices over 3-months by house size.   Looking at 1400-1600 sq’ data 50% or ½ (25-75 percentile) sold between $130,000 and $163,000, with the actual middle price at: $145,000.

House size range	1400-1600 Square Feet	2200-2400 Square Feet
Lowest sales price	$85,000	$140,000
25% sales price	$130,000	$173,500
Median Price (50%)	$145,000	$190,000
75% sales price	$163,000	$206,500
Highest sales price	$197,000	$261,000
Price per Sq’ by sale type
Standard Sale	$107	$97
REO Sale	$96	$80
Short Sale	$86	$82