Puerto Rico at 14.4%

Michigan at 14.1%

Oregon at 12.4%

Rhode Island & South Carolina at 12.1%

Californa at 11.5%

Nevada at 11.3%

North Carolina at 11.1%

With the following States also having 10% or more unemployment: Washington D.C. (10.7%); Florida (10.2%); Illinois (10.1%); Indians (10.6%); Kentucky (10.6%); Ohio (10.8%); Tennessee (10.7%)

The National Unemployument Rate in May 2009 was: 9.4%, up from 5.5% in May 2008.

Beverly A. Bayer, SRA – Moreno Valley, CA: Real Estate Appraiser

First Chart is showing what percentage of a population can afford the median priced home, in its area – for Riverside / San Bernardino Counties the lowest percent of families that could afford the median priced home was in the third quarter of 2006 at 18% – now in the first quarter of 2009 it is 65% of families that can afford the median priced home, which is superior to the National affordability rate of 64% for the first quarter of 2009.

Next chart is the number of Moreno Valley homes in foreclosure, or lender owned over time.  NOD = Notices of Default – the first step in the foreclosure process; NOT = Notices of Trustee Sale – date has been set for the foreclosure transfer back to the lender; and REO = Real Estate Owned or properties now owned by their lender.  Note the total number was fairly stable until May 2009; First noticed by an increase in the Notices of Default, followed by the NOTs (homes going to the foreclosure auction) and now the growth is in the number of lender owned homes (REOs).

Next chart is based on the number of active listings divided by the number of pending sales (over 1-month) to reflect the months of standing inventory (which is the time needed – based on sales for the current number of listings to sell).

Breaking down the listings / pending sales over 1-month – the following was found based on type of sale:

• Only 6% of listings are Standard sales and 88% of Standard sales are selling.
• 22% of listings are REO and 63% of REO properties are selling.
• 60% of listings are short sales, but only 13% of short sales are selling.

Next chart is the changes in Unemployment (local area is Riverside – San Bernardino – Ontario, CA)

Next chart is the median sales price per square foot for the 4 zip codes in Moreno Valley – between Jan 2008 and April 2009.  For contrast the median prices per square foot from July 2006 (about the top of the market) to April 2009 are:

The low (very affordable) home prices are attracting buyers, and we have seen a shift from too many homes for sale and too few buyers – to too many buyers and not enough properties (priced correctly).  This will result in price increases.  However, more foreclosures will increase the inventory and a growing unemployment problem might push some potential homebuyers out of the market.

Beverly A. Bayer, SRA – Appraising MorenoValley.com

Looking at the median home prices provided by dqnews.com we can see the trend in Moreno Valley prices by zip code over time.  Home prices were on the rise in the 1980s hitting a high in 1990.  Home prices fell about 1/3 between 1990 and 1997.  It took about 4 years (to 2001) for homes prices to get back to the prior highs of 1990. The acceleration of home prices started a few years later, that huge increase in median prices – almost to the $400,000 mark was not in line with real income, but the result of aggressive lending.  That irresponsible lending resulted in the foreclosure problem that we are working through now, as too many families found themselves in homes and loans they could not afford.  Lenders anxious to get the foreclosed homes off their balance sheet, often under priced them to get them sold, and everyone was in a race to under price, bringing prices down at a very fast pace.  As prices went lower buyers became interested.  The issue now is too many buyers (many of them investors) in the marketplace and not enough well priced listings – this has resulted in multiple offers and up bidding; with the final step being a noticeable increase in home prices.

We are seeing a good trend in home sales in the Inland Empire of Southern California, which does not appear affected by the growing number of unemployed. However, the good rate of sales is probably more attributable to the new lower home prices. For example Moreno Valley, CA homes have lost about 60% of value since the summer of 2006.

Beverly A. Bayer

First chart is Moreno Valley median sales prices from DataQuick for March, June, September and December from the year 2000 to 2008 (March) – showing the rapid increase in median prices and the current decline. Prices have gone down in 1-year by zip code: 92551: 35.5% 92553: 49.3% 92555:  37.4% 92557:  36.8%

Next chart is the total number of home sales for March 2000 to March 2008 – showing the rise and decline in the number of sales.

DataQuick reports for all of California March 2008 reported the lowest number of home sales for a March since they started keeping records in 1988.  And 38.4% of the homes sold in the State in March were foreclosed homes.

Next chart is the number of foreclosures for each of the Moreno Valley zip codes for the first quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008 – showing the huge jump up.

For the first quarter of 2008 – Stockton, California had the highest rate of homes in the foreclosure process at 1 house out of 30 – in second place is Riverside / San Bernardino Counties – with 1 house out of 38 affected.  For the 4 zip codes in Moreno Valley here is the following:

Zip code 92551 1 house out of 43 is in foreclosure – ranking 11 in the Southern California area

Zip code 92553 1 house out of 69 is in foreclosure – ranking 25 in the Southern California area

Zip code 92555 1 house out of 36 is in foreclosure – ranking 7 in the Southern California area

Zip code 92557 1 house out of 75 is in foreclosure – ranking 30 in the Southern California area

And there are 498 zip codes in the sample

This chart is for a 3 week period of single family homes in Moreno Valley by Notices of Default (the first step in the foreclosure process); number of new listings and the number of those new listings that are vacant; the number of pending sales and the number of those pending sales that were vacant; and the number of closed sales and the number of those that sold vacant.  43% of the new listings are priced under: $200,000.  The average list price of the pending sales was: $215,163 and the average price of the sold homes was: $233,896.  With the average home sold over 1900 square feet in size.

Final chart is the median price per square foot for the closed sales / closed sales (vacant) / list prices of the pending sales and list prices of the pending sales the sold vacant.  Noting the pending are going out for less and there is a slight discount between prices of occupied homes and vacant homes.

Until we see more sales then new listings and new notices of default – and more pending sales actually closing escrow – prices will not be able to start moving upward.  And the bigger the desperation of the sellers will probably result in a continued decline in home prices.  Prices now are down to the levels from the summer of 2003, and a decline of about 47% from the top of the market from the Summer of 2006.

From Beverly A. Bayer, SRA

The following is the average sales prices per square foot of Moreno Valley, CA homes by house size groups: 1000 – 1200;  1400 – 1600;  and  1800 – 2000 square feet; starting with the average sales price per square foot from 1.5 years ago / 1 year ago / 6 months ago and current pending sales – using their last list prices.  (data date: 3/18/2008).

According to DataQuick home prices in the 4 Moreno Valley zip codes have gone down between February 2007 and February 2008

With 130 total home sales – in Feb 2007 174 homes sold – in Feb 2006 309 homes sold – and in Feb 2005 285 homes sold – showing the current slow rate of home sales.

Based on the rate of sales home between 1000 – 1200 square feet in size – it would take 13.6 months to dispose of the standing inventory.

For homes between 1400 – 1600 it would take 15 months to dispose of the standing inventory.

For homes between 1800 and 2000 square feet – it would take 19+ months.

From Beverly A. Bayer, SRA appraiser

Bayer Facts of Moreno Valley, CA: 3/5/2008

Moreno Valley Foreclosures

= about 333 NODs per month – and for February 2008 about 108 homes are reported as sold in MLS (some by the auto close option).  There are 380 properties in Moreno Valley listed as pending in MLS – 244 pending since: 2/5/2008.  So even if each pending over the past month sold – there are more new Notices of Default.

Affordability

On 2/19/2008 C.A.R. reported the entry level affordability in California reached 33%, in the 4th quarter of 2007.  Which is the percentage of homebuyers can afford an entry level home. The calculation of mortgage payment is based on an interest rate of 6.21% with a 10% down payment.
The improvement was from 1 in 4 families that could afford the statewide entry-level home in the 4th quarter of 2006 to 1 in 3 families in the 4th quarter of 2007.

For Riverside / San Bernardino the affordability rate for the current period is 46% (almost ½) compared to 34% (about 1 family out of 3) 1 year ago.  For Riverside / San Bernardino the entry-level home price for the 4th quarter of 2007 was: $287,330 (basically 85% of the median home price per area) – with an estimated monthly mortgage payment with taxes and insurance at: $1920 and a qualifying income of: $57,600 (30%).

Financing

We at Bayer Appraisals have been surveying listings reported as sold by “auto sale” in MLS and finding the following:  7 out of 15 properties (we called about) reported as “closed” had not, due to the auto closing feature now part of our MLS.  Agents when asked did not like the new feature and sometimes did not know their pending sales were coming up as “closed”.   All together 10 agents were kind enough to talk about what they are seeing now.  They are seeing more activity and reported multiple offers – generally on the lower priced homes – typically on properties in move in condition.

FHA financing is hot in the around $200,000 price range and below; with down payment assistance common.  Tighter underwriting is a problem, often with last minute demands (such as larger down payments) extending the escrow times, or killing deals.  Some agents report an increase in desk reviews.  One agent had a problem where a desk review came in lower then the appraised value / purchase price.  100% financing is basically gone, and even 5% down might not be enough, for conventional loans.  Agents expressed a belief that foreclosures will remain a problem and prices will continue downward.

Hot news from Wil at MTGexperts.com – the new Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac – conforming loan limit is now: $500,000 in Riverside / San Bernardino Counties.

Recent Moreno Valley home sales: 2/22/2008
Not taken originally from MLS

So what am I seeing:  mostly REO sales; more FHA financing, no longer 100% financing which was the norm 2 years ago.  Big losses of value.  The lowest sales price of these recent sales is $150,000 – but there are currently 26 pending sales where the house was listed below $150,000.  And 45 single family homes now listed at $150,000 or less – with an average house size of: 1012 square feet (average at $140 per square foot).  In the most recent week of Moreno Valley Notices of Default – there were 56 homes; which is about average.  Compared to about 2 weeks of sales (above) that is a ratio of / about: 6 NODs for every house sold.

]]> http://www.appraisingmorenovalley.com/2008/02/22/recent-moreno-valley-home-sales-2222008/feed/ 0 http://www.appraisingmorenovalley.com/2008/02/21/moreno-valley-pending-home-sales-report-2212008/ http://www.appraisingmorenovalley.com/2008/02/21/moreno-valley-pending-home-sales-report-2212008/#comments Thu, 21 Feb 2008 23:46:29 +0000 Alan http://alanebayer.com/amv/?p=37 Moreno Valley Pending Home Sales Report: 2/21/2008

½ of the pending sales were listed below $235,000.

1-28-2008

Last night on 60 minutes there was a major segment on the sub-prime problem.  They talked to one couple who are having problems with their adjusting mortgage – their only option (they believe) is to walk away.  They were looking at Stockton, California as a foreclosure hotspot using: www.foreclosureradar.com.  I went to the site the Moreno Valley map is jam packed with pre-foreclosure, foreclosure and lender owned properties.  They are using www.zillow.com as the source for current values of the listed properties.  I have found zillow is not reporting the current (real) values in Moreno Valley.

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Report from DataQuick (1-22-2008) found the number of mortgage defaults in California in the fourth quarter of 2007 was the highest in 15 years.  They reported the statewide median home price hit a high of $484,000 last March, going down to $402,000 at the end of the year.  Most of the loans in default originated in August to October 2006.  For Riverside County the default numbers were from 4528 in the 4th quarter of 2006 to 9913 in the 4th quarter of 2007.

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A homeowner is suing her real estate agent for she believes the agent mislead her about the true value of the home she purchased.  The case goes to trial today in North San Diego County.  The agent claims the buyers did not do their due diligence, the buyers claimed they trusted the real estate agent – who not only sold them the house, but also worked as a loan broker.  Requests to see the appraisal were stalled, thus the appraiser was also sued, but settled.

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On Friday 1/18/2007 a vice president of a collapsed subprime mortgage lender (Fieldstone Mortgage) jumped to his death, after apparently after killing his wife in a murder-suicide.