Sketchers USA

Birth of wine vineyards in Moreno Valley – North of the 60 freeway – east of Theodore St.

Moreno Valley Community College – Lasselle Street south of Iris – open

Moreno Valley Medical Campus –for Kaiser Permanente – on Iris west of the Moreno Valley Community Hospital – approved

Connection of Kitching Street south of Alessandro Blvd – under construction

March Life Care on March Air Reserve Base – see www.marchhealthcare.com – coming

New Neighborhood Park – Corner of Filaree and Perris Blvd.

Bayer Facts: June 22, 2010

Provided by Beverly A. Bayer, SRA (appraiser) 951 247-3674

Data shows home prices (after the big drop) are moving up – not only in Moreno Valley, but in the 7 County area.  However, from the high median price (in 2006-2007) in Moreno Valley to the lowest median price in 2009 – for 3 of 4 Moreno Valley zip codes – the $ drop was: $262,500 (68%); $270,000 (73%) and $275,000 (68%).  In the 1990 – 1997 drop the percentage decline was: 39%, 41% and 37%.  And the $ drop more in the range of $79,000.

Although home prices are going up, I am seeing a slight increase in inventory (homes for sale) and a slight slowing in the number of sales – which is (over-all) increasing the months of inventory – in the communities near Moreno Valley, CA.

Changes in Median Moreno Valley Prices over 4-years: May 2006 vs. May 2010

Chart with above data….

Most of the current listings are short sales and most of the sales are the REOs; based on rate of sales, we have about 2.7 months of Standard Sales in inventory; 38 days of REO inventory and 3 months of short sale inventory.  In the time period from 5/22/2010 to 6/22/2010 only 240 single family homes sold in Moreno Valley – in the same time period 1-year ago 403 homes sold and in 2008 (same time period) 312 homes sold – so fewer homes are selling.  The most interesting change is in the type of sales with an increase in the percentage of short sales in 2010, over 2008 & 2009 (from 8% & 11% 2008/2009 to 35% this year).

National Unemployment: 9.7 in May 2010; it was 9.4% in May 2009, and 5.5% in May 2008.

Riverside / San Bernardino Counties unemployment in April 2010 was: 14.2%, in April 2009: 12.1% and in April 2008: 6.7%.

Above is the percentage of Riverside County families that can afford the median priced home in the County.  In California the affordability rate in the first quarter was: 49 and the National affordability rate for the quarter was 65.  Looking back for each May between 1990 and 2005 the lowest affordability rate in this County was 14 and the highest 56 (the average was 43% rounded).  Foreclosure information is showing a decline in numbers.

Moreno Valley home prices over 3-months by house size.   Looking at 1400-1600 sq’ data 50% or ½ (25-75 percentile) sold between $130,000 and $163,000, with the actual middle price at: $145,000.

Looks like lots of motel rooms and distribution centers…

SanSai Grill (Towngate Center) hey, its good – lunch included salad, soup and main dish

Sports Authority (Towngate Crossing) big store – lots of cool sporting stuff (also new: Nubi Yogurt)

Straw Hat Pizza (Cactus Commerce Center) Cactus Ave / Elsworth

Hampton Inn & Suites (TownGate Promenade)

Carl’s Jr & Panda Express (Moreno Beach Plaza) Nice to have a Panda Express on the east end

Moreno Beach Dental (Moreno Marketplace)

Jack In The Box (old Wendy’s site Perris & 60)

Arby’s (Iris Plaza)

Opening Soon

iWash Express (on Sunnymead, east of Graham)

Fresh & Easy 2-locations (Frederick & Cottonwood) and (Ironwood & Heacock)

Q Nails and Spa (Moreno Marketplace)

The Coffee Spot (Elsworth Plaza)

Ayres Suites (Towngate Promenade)

Izvernari Professional Office (Perris / Myers)

Approved

Sonic Resturant (Alessandro / Indian)

Fresh & Easy (Iris / Oliver)

Carino’s Italian Grill (Towngate Promenade) construction on hold

Famous Dave’s Barbeque (Towngate Promenade) in plan check

On the Border (Towngate Promenade) construction on hold

Red Lobster (Towngate Promenade) construction on hold

Lowe’s (Moreno Beach Marketplace) construction on hold

Hangar C-17 Resturant & Sports Bar (Elsworth Plaza)

Rite-Aid (Alessandro / Moreno Beach)

Hawthorn Inn & Suites (Cactus / Elsworth)

Office Space (TownGate Square)

Under Construction

Additional parking (Towngate Center) WinCo Foods is the anchor

PetSmart, Staples, Wescom Credit Union (Moreno Beach Plaza)

Multi-phase renovation of Moreno Valley Plaza

Lakeside Cleaners (Moreno Marketplace) tenant improvement

Goodyear Tire (Iris Plaza)

N & R Square (Perris / Alessaandro) anchor to be Warehouse Shoe Sale

La Quinta Inn & Suites (Frederick / Sunnymead)

Major Things in Planning

WinCo Foods (Alessandro / Lasselle)

96-residential units / commerical (Alessandro / Lasselle)

Walgreens (Alessandro / Moreno Beach)

Komar Cactus Plaza (Cactus / Commerece) residential / resturant / hospitality

Retail Center (Pigeon Pass / Hemlock)

Marriott TownePlace Suites (Komar Cactus Plaza)

Sleep Inn Suites (Olivewood Plaza)

Value Place – extended stay hotel (Sunnymead / Heacock)

Medical office condos  (Cresta Bella)

Self-Storage (Graham / Alessandro)

Office Building (Olivewood Plaza) Sunnymead / Graham

Imperial Village – Senior Retirement Community Center (Nason / Brodiaea)

Industral

Alere Property Group (Heacock / Cardinal Way) 756,340 Sq’ & 423,015 Sq’ Distrubtion centers, Lowe’s. O’Reilly Auto Parts

84 Lumber Co (Heacock /Nandina)

First Industrial Realty Trust (Nandina / Perris) industrial / distrubtion ; (Nandina / Heacock / Indian) 1.2 million Sq’ total buildings and another large development at Indian /Iris

Gateway Business Park – industrial Condos (Alessandro / Day)

Highland Fairfield (60 / Redlands / Theodore) Sketchers USA – in plan check

IDI (Perris / Grove View) distribution center

Komar Investements (San Michele / Heacock / Indian) distribution center -in plan check

overton Moore Properties: (Cactus / Day) and (Cactus / Frederick) warehouse /distribution

Prologis (Pettit / Quincy) 6 buildings 2,224,419 Sq’ – in planning

Ridge Property Trust (Quincy / Redlands) 943,800 Sq’ building – in planning

Ross Dress for Less Distribution Center – expansion – under construction

Vogal Engineers, Inc – distribution center in planning (Oleander / Indian / Perris)

Western Realco: 4 buildings – in planning (Iris / Heacock)

posted 6/19/2009 for more infomation go to: www.moreno-valley.ca.us

Beverly A. Bayer, SRA   (Moreno Valley real estate appraiser)

23802 Parkland Avenue

1474sq’        built 1986    .11 acre lot

16605 Vista Conejo Drive

1123sq’        built 1997    .12 acre

24372 Electra Court

1381sq’        built 1985    .12 acre

Tried to sell the house in 2008 (listing expired on 5/13/2008 at: $199,000).

Loan modification done 2/11/2009 for $313,951 for 27 years.

12659 Meadbury Drive

1582sq’        built 1982    .17 acre

28919 Gifford Avenue

1450sq’        built 1974    .20 acre

28817 Maltby Avenue

1531sq’        built 1987    .30 acre

10911 Mendoza Road

2286sq’        built 1988    .15 acre

24634 Huntley Drive

1933sq’        built 1986    .20 acre

15346 Calle Camelia

2570sq’        built 2004    .13 acre

22824 Tea Rose Lane

2197sq’        built 1987    .20 acre

6 (60%) became foreclosures, 2 (20%) sold as short sales, 1 person was able to get a loan modification and one loan seems to be OK.  The search was based on close of escrow date through MLS and 13 sales were found (3 were kicked out because the close of escrow date from a second source did not fit my search date range).  Those 3 also became foreclosures – so really the foreclosure rate was: 69%.  Really only 1 loan seems to have been successful and it was the loan with a 20% down payment.  7 out of these 10 loans were for 100% financing.  The average effective interest rate in 2006 was: 6.53% – 6 of the 10 loans had higher adjustable rate loans.  The property on Vista Conejo had an interest rate of 9.32% (the monthly payment on $355,000 at 9.25% against a 6.5% loan would be a difference each month of about $675).

It helps to look back at the insanity to understand what went wrong.  Moreno Valley home prices right now are at the levels from 2001 (over a 60% decline – over what they were about 3 years ago).  Based on responsible lending the local affordability rate was at 18% (18 families out of 100 could afford the median priced home) in the 3th quarter of 2006 – most recently the rate was at 65%.   Obviously loans were being made beyond what families could afford, often with 100% financing.  Without reasonable lending guidelines home prices were allowed to continue to increase, until reason and reality set in and the buyers disappeared.  Without buyers (or buyers able to get financing) home sales stop until the prices attract buyers (and lenders) back into the market.

Beverly A. Bayer, SRA

First Chart is showing what percentage of a population can afford the median priced home, in its area – for Riverside / San Bernardino Counties the lowest percent of families that could afford the median priced home was in the third quarter of 2006 at 18% – now in the first quarter of 2009 it is 65% of families that can afford the median priced home, which is superior to the National affordability rate of 64% for the first quarter of 2009.

Next chart is the number of Moreno Valley homes in foreclosure, or lender owned over time.  NOD = Notices of Default – the first step in the foreclosure process; NOT = Notices of Trustee Sale – date has been set for the foreclosure transfer back to the lender; and REO = Real Estate Owned or properties now owned by their lender.  Note the total number was fairly stable until May 2009; First noticed by an increase in the Notices of Default, followed by the NOTs (homes going to the foreclosure auction) and now the growth is in the number of lender owned homes (REOs).

Next chart is based on the number of active listings divided by the number of pending sales (over 1-month) to reflect the months of standing inventory (which is the time needed – based on sales for the current number of listings to sell).

Breaking down the listings / pending sales over 1-month – the following was found based on type of sale:

• Only 6% of listings are Standard sales and 88% of Standard sales are selling.
• 22% of listings are REO and 63% of REO properties are selling.
• 60% of listings are short sales, but only 13% of short sales are selling.

Next chart is the changes in Unemployment (local area is Riverside – San Bernardino – Ontario, CA)

Next chart is the median sales price per square foot for the 4 zip codes in Moreno Valley – between Jan 2008 and April 2009.  For contrast the median prices per square foot from July 2006 (about the top of the market) to April 2009 are:

The low (very affordable) home prices are attracting buyers, and we have seen a shift from too many homes for sale and too few buyers – to too many buyers and not enough properties (priced correctly).  This will result in price increases.  However, more foreclosures will increase the inventory and a growing unemployment problem might push some potential homebuyers out of the market.

Beverly A. Bayer, SRA – Appraising MorenoValley.com

Looking at the median home prices provided by dqnews.com we can see the trend in Moreno Valley prices by zip code over time.  Home prices were on the rise in the 1980s hitting a high in 1990.  Home prices fell about 1/3 between 1990 and 1997.  It took about 4 years (to 2001) for homes prices to get back to the prior highs of 1990. The acceleration of home prices started a few years later, that huge increase in median prices – almost to the $400,000 mark was not in line with real income, but the result of aggressive lending.  That irresponsible lending resulted in the foreclosure problem that we are working through now, as too many families found themselves in homes and loans they could not afford.  Lenders anxious to get the foreclosed homes off their balance sheet, often under priced them to get them sold, and everyone was in a race to under price, bringing prices down at a very fast pace.  As prices went lower buyers became interested.  The issue now is too many buyers (many of them investors) in the marketplace and not enough well priced listings – this has resulted in multiple offers and up bidding; with the final step being a noticeable increase in home prices.

First chart is the median sales price for each August – from 1988 to 2008 from dqnews.com

Next chart is the median sales prices per square foot since January 2008

These 2 charts show the rise and fall of Moreno Valley (California) home prices.  The first over 20 years (using median prices for each August).  The second chart is per square foot for 2008, possibly showing prices starting to stabilize.
This chart breaks down homes by size for sales 45 to 90 days ago; sales from 45 days ago to current pending sales per square foot – this chart does not appear to indicate prices are starting to stabilize.

This chart is the number of Moreno Valley homes for sale; number of sales since 9.10.2008 (from MLS) and the totals of Notices of Default (NOD); Notices of Foreclosure sales (NOT) and bank owned homes (REO) from First American.

This chart shows the number of homes in foreclosure or on the way is almost equal to the number of homes currently for sale, with certainly some of those foreclosures (current or future) are also in the “for sale” category.  Homes are currently selling at a rate of about 13.8 per day –at that rate we have a standing inventory of just over 5 months – and that is good.  A chart on the next page (in red) shows the rate of sales has greatly improved.  Of homes currently listed for sale between 1400 – 1600 square feet about 36% are owner occupied / 51% vacant and 11% rented.  Of the owner occupied only 14% are not reported to be short sales (and most of those are the higher priced listings – where some if priced right might actually also be short sales).  I think over 90% of the homes for sale are distress sales.

Next chart is by quarter for Moreno Valley homes 1400 to 1600 square feet in size: median prices.

This chart is the number of home sold (1400 – 1600sq’) by quarter

As you can see homes prices from the high to the low have loss almost 60% of value.  In contrast between 1990 and 1997 Moreno Valley homes dropped in value about 1/3 – it is almost twice as bad this time – and the decline has happed over a significantly shorter period of time – and it may not be over.  In 2007 the number of sales was way down – and that has improved greatly this year.  In a normal real estate market you will have sellers testing the market; that is not the case right now – as most homes for sale – need to sell, with many of them being or will be lender owned.

I hope this information is useful and I love to answer valuation, market trends and appraisal questions.  I have over 30 years of appraisal experience; the only appraiser in Moreno Valley with the prestigious SRA designation.  I am a certified appraiser (only 23% of Moreno Valley appraisers hold the residential certification license – and in 1-year FHA will only accept appraisals done by certified appraisers).
Beverly A. Bayer, SRA
www.AppraisingMorenoValley.com

First chart is the median sales prices for the 4 Moreno Valley zip codes for each July (between 1989 and 2008).  I think Magic Mountain is considering this new coaster design.

This is really painful to property owners in Moreno Valley!

]]> http://www.appraisingmorenovalley.com/2008/08/26/bayer-facts-8262008/feed/ 0 http://www.appraisingmorenovalley.com/2008/04/30/bayer-facts-moreno-valley-real-estate-market-april-2008/ http://www.appraisingmorenovalley.com/2008/04/30/bayer-facts-moreno-valley-real-estate-market-april-2008/#comments Wed, 30 Apr 2008 01:26:46 +0000 Alan http://alanebayer.com/amv/?p=49 Bayer Facts: April 30, 2008

First chart is Moreno Valley median sales prices from DataQuick for March, June, September and December from the year 2000 to 2008 (March) – showing the rapid increase in median prices and the current decline. Prices have gone down in 1-year by zip code: 92551: 35.5% 92553: 49.3% 92555:  37.4% 92557:  36.8%

Next chart is the total number of home sales for March 2000 to March 2008 – showing the rise and decline in the number of sales.

DataQuick reports for all of California March 2008 reported the lowest number of home sales for a March since they started keeping records in 1988.  And 38.4% of the homes sold in the State in March were foreclosed homes.

Next chart is the number of foreclosures for each of the Moreno Valley zip codes for the first quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008 – showing the huge jump up.

For the first quarter of 2008 – Stockton, California had the highest rate of homes in the foreclosure process at 1 house out of 30 – in second place is Riverside / San Bernardino Counties – with 1 house out of 38 affected.  For the 4 zip codes in Moreno Valley here is the following:

Zip code 92551 1 house out of 43 is in foreclosure – ranking 11 in the Southern California area

Zip code 92553 1 house out of 69 is in foreclosure – ranking 25 in the Southern California area

Zip code 92555 1 house out of 36 is in foreclosure – ranking 7 in the Southern California area

Zip code 92557 1 house out of 75 is in foreclosure – ranking 30 in the Southern California area

And there are 498 zip codes in the sample

This chart is for a 3 week period of single family homes in Moreno Valley by Notices of Default (the first step in the foreclosure process); number of new listings and the number of those new listings that are vacant; the number of pending sales and the number of those pending sales that were vacant; and the number of closed sales and the number of those that sold vacant.  43% of the new listings are priced under: $200,000.  The average list price of the pending sales was: $215,163 and the average price of the sold homes was: $233,896.  With the average home sold over 1900 square feet in size.

Final chart is the median price per square foot for the closed sales / closed sales (vacant) / list prices of the pending sales and list prices of the pending sales the sold vacant.  Noting the pending are going out for less and there is a slight discount between prices of occupied homes and vacant homes.

Until we see more sales then new listings and new notices of default – and more pending sales actually closing escrow – prices will not be able to start moving upward.  And the bigger the desperation of the sellers will probably result in a continued decline in home prices.  Prices now are down to the levels from the summer of 2003, and a decline of about 47% from the top of the market from the Summer of 2006.

From Beverly A. Bayer, SRA

The following is the average sales prices per square foot of Moreno Valley, CA homes by house size groups: 1000 – 1200;  1400 – 1600;  and  1800 – 2000 square feet; starting with the average sales price per square foot from 1.5 years ago / 1 year ago / 6 months ago and current pending sales – using their last list prices.  (data date: 3/18/2008).

According to DataQuick home prices in the 4 Moreno Valley zip codes have gone down between February 2007 and February 2008

With 130 total home sales – in Feb 2007 174 homes sold – in Feb 2006 309 homes sold – and in Feb 2005 285 homes sold – showing the current slow rate of home sales.

Based on the rate of sales home between 1000 – 1200 square feet in size – it would take 13.6 months to dispose of the standing inventory.

For homes between 1400 – 1600 it would take 15 months to dispose of the standing inventory.

For homes between 1800 and 2000 square feet – it would take 19+ months.

From Beverly A. Bayer, SRA appraiser