Archive for the ‘Moreno Valley’ Category

Moreno Valley, California Market Data: 3/18/2008

The following is the average sales prices per square foot of Moreno Valley, CA homes by house size groups: 1000 – 1200;  1400 – 1600;  and  1800 – 2000 square feet; starting with the average sales price per square foot from 1.5 years ago / 1 year ago / 6 months ago and current pending sales – using their last list prices.  (data date: 3/18/2008).

According to DataQuick home prices in the 4 Moreno Valley zip codes have gone down between February 2007 and February 2008

92551	down	36.3%
92553	down	42.9%
92555	down	30.0%
92557	down	35.2%

With 130 total home sales – in Feb 2007 174 homes sold – in Feb 2006 309 homes sold – and in Feb 2005 285 homes sold – showing the current slow rate of home sales.

Based on the rate of sales home between 1000 – 1200 square feet in size – it would take 13.6 months to dispose of the standing inventory.

For homes between 1400 – 1600 it would take 15 months to dispose of the standing inventory.

For homes between 1800 and 2000 square feet – it would take 19+ months.

From Beverly A. Bayer, SRA appraiser

Foreclosures, Affordability and Financing

Bayer Facts of Moreno Valley, CA: 3/5/2008

Moreno Valley Foreclosures

Notices of Default reported:	2/5/2008	70
	2/12/2008	63
	2/20/2008	56
	2/26/2008	127
	3/4/2008	101

= about 333 NODs per month – and for February 2008 about 108 homes are reported as sold in MLS (some by the auto close option).  There are 380 properties in Moreno Valley listed as pending in MLS – 244 pending since: 2/5/2008.  So even if each pending over the past month sold – there are more new Notices of Default.

Affordability

On 2/19/2008 C.A.R. reported the entry level affordability in California reached 33%, in the 4th quarter of 2007.  Which is the percentage of homebuyers can afford an entry level home. The calculation of mortgage payment is based on an interest rate of 6.21% with a 10% down payment.
The improvement was from 1 in 4 families that could afford the statewide entry-level home in the 4th quarter of 2006 to 1 in 3 families in the 4th quarter of 2007.

For Riverside / San Bernardino the affordability rate for the current period is 46% (almost ½) compared to 34% (about 1 family out of 3) 1 year ago.  For Riverside / San Bernardino the entry-level home price for the 4th quarter of 2007 was: $287,330 (basically 85% of the median home price per area) – with an estimated monthly mortgage payment with taxes and insurance at: $1920 and a qualifying income of: $57,600 (30%).

Financing

We at Bayer Appraisals have been surveying listings reported as sold by “auto sale” in MLS and finding the following:  7 out of 15 properties (we called about) reported as “closed” had not, due to the auto closing feature now part of our MLS.  Agents when asked did not like the new feature and sometimes did not know their pending sales were coming up as “closed”.   All together 10 agents were kind enough to talk about what they are seeing now.  They are seeing more activity and reported multiple offers – generally on the lower priced homes – typically on properties in move in condition.

FHA financing is hot in the around $200,000 price range and below; with down payment assistance common.  Tighter underwriting is a problem, often with last minute demands (such as larger down payments) extending the escrow times, or killing deals.  Some agents report an increase in desk reviews.  One agent had a problem where a desk review came in lower then the appraised value / purchase price.  100% financing is basically gone, and even 5% down might not be enough, for conventional loans.  Agents expressed a belief that foreclosures will remain a problem and prices will continue downward.

Hot news from Wil at MTGexperts.com – the new Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac – conforming loan limit is now: $500,000 in Riverside / San Bernardino Counties.

Recent Moreno Valley home sales: 2/22/2008
Not taken originally from MLS

So what am I seeing:  mostly REO sales; more FHA financing, no longer 100% financing which was the norm 2 years ago.  Big losses of value.  The lowest sales price of these recent sales is $150,000 – but there are currently 26 pending sales where the house was listed below $150,000.  And 45 single family homes now listed at $150,000 or less – with an average house size of: 1012 square feet (average at $140 per square foot).  In the most recent week of Moreno Valley Notices of Default – there were 56 homes; which is about average.  Compared to about 2 weeks of sales (above) that is a ratio of / about: 6 NODs for every house sold.

$150,000	REO	2/6/2008	95% conv	1149Sqft	$130.55 per Sqft
$235,000		6/2004
lost $85,000 in 44 months = – $1932 per month
$175,000	REO	2/14/2008	80% conv	852Sqft	$205.40 per Sqft
$244,000		3/2005
lost $69,000 in 34 months = – $2029 per month
$189,000	REO	2/7/2008	95% conv	1422Sqft	$132.91 per Sqft
$350,000		6/1/2006
lost $161,000 in 20 month = – $8050 per month
$190,500	REO	2/11/2008	98.6 FHA	1526Sqft	$124.84 per Sqft
$270,000		8/1/2004
lost $79,500 in 42 months = – $1893 per month
$200,000	REO	2/5/2008	98.4% FHA	1335Sqft	$149.81 per Sqft
$107,000		8/1/2000
$215,000	REO	2/1/2008	CASH	1868Sqft	$115.10 per Sqft
$379,000		3/1/2006
lost $164,000 in 23 months = – $7130 per month
$234,000	REO	2/13/2008	90% conv	960Sqft	$243.75 per Sqft
$315,000		3/1/2006
lost $81,000 in 23 months = – $3522 per month
$235,000	REO	2/8/2008	CASH	1571Sqft	$149.59 per Sqft
$309,000		1/1/2005
lost $74,000 in 37 months = – $2000 per month
$270,000		2/1/2008	94% FHA	1623Sqft	$166.36 per Sqft
Not an REO or a short sale
$290,000	REO	2/1/2008	98.4% FHA	1821Sqft	$159.25 per Sqft
$152,000		8/1/2001
$293,000	REO	2/5/2008	90% conv	2141Sqft	$136.85 per Sqft
$300,000		2/8/2008	100% VA	1743Sqft	$172.12 per Sqft
$221,000		10/1/2003
$300,000	REO	2/5/2008	67% conv	1988Sqft	$150.91 per Sqft
$465,000		3/1/2006
lost $165,000 in 23 months = – $7174 per month
$332,500	REO	2/8/2008	75% conv	1792Sqft	$185.55 per Sqft
$460,000		7/1/2006
lost $127,500 in 19 months = – $6710 per month
$340,000		2/11/2008	90% conv	1865Sqft	$182.31 per Sqft
Sold outside MLS: Buyer / Seller had the same last name
$352,000		2/5/2008	98.5% FHA	1885Sqft	$186.74 per Sqft
$155,000		11/1/2002
Seller & listing agent had the same name – lowest list price $9000 below sales price
$360,000	REO	2/13/2008	80% conv	2778Sqft	$129.59 per Sqft
$515,000		6/1/2006
lost $155,000 in 20 months = – $7750 per month
$387,500	REO	2/4/2008	80% conv	2580Sqft	$150.19 per Sqft
$499,000		5/1/2005
lost $111,500 in 45 months = – $2478 per month

Moreno Valley Real Estate Market report: 1/18/2008

Sales Data

Between 12/27/2007 and 12/30/2007 there where 55 new Notices of Default for Moreno Valley homes.  In the same time period there were 13 new pending sales and 15 closed sales.  The average sold price per square foot was: $143 and the average list price of the pending sales is even lower at: $135 per square foot.

Since 1/1/2008 there have been 260 new listings in the Moreno Valley MLS – with an average list price per square foot of the single family homes at: $152 per square foot.  In January 2007 95 homes sold in Moreno Valley per MLS – with an average sales price per square foot of: $207.

Per Data Quick reports the median sales price per square foot for December 2007 (using all 4 zip codes) was: $157.
For December 2006 the median was at: $237 per square foot.
On Average home price in Moreno Valley went down 26.7% between December 2006 and December 2007.

New Stuff from DataQuick – December 2007

For Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego and Ventura Counties: December marked the lowest number of total home sales over the 19 years of Data Quick reporting.

“The median price paid for a Southland home was $425,000 last month, the lowest since $420,000 in February 2005.”  And “15.8% below the $505,000 peak reached last spring and summer.”

For Riverside County – the rate of December 2007 sales against December 2006 was down 44.9% and median home prices dropped from $432,000 to $355,000 (-17.8%).

Following chart is the median sales prices for each December from 1990 to 2007 – for the 4 Moreno Valley zip codes

Next chart is the number of total home sales for December since 2000.

Moreno Valley End of Year 2007 Home Sales Data

First chart is the number of homes listed for sale: 12/30/2007
By list price, also showing the number of those homes that are Vacant

There are a total of 2247 single family homes for sale
1093 are vacant – which is 48.6% (almost half)

68 of the total number of listings per MLS are owner occupied with a Notice of Default filed – add that to the number of vacant homes (1093) equals 1161 homes that need to sell.

121 homes sold since: 11/1/2007 (= 2 per day) at that rate it would take 590.5 days or over 19 months to sell the 1161 homes that need to sell (or over 3 years to sell all the homes now listed for sale).  Last year in the same time period 295 homes sold (= almost 5 sales per day compared to the current rate of 2 sales per day).

The average sales price since 11/1/2007 is $289,458 or $159 per Sq’
Last year in the same time period was $389,446 or $218 per Sq’ – an average drop of almost $100,000 exactly and $59 per square foot.  Which is a 1-year decline in values of about 26%.

Moreno Valley DataQuick numbers for November 2007 – indicate home prices in Moreno Valley went down 21% in 1-year with a current average price per square foot at: $168.

Only 48 homes sold through MLS (2007) – last November (2006) 151 homes sold.

23 of the current sales sold for $5000 to $82,000 below the final list price.

A house on Country Flower sold for $59,990 below list price.

A house on Delcresta sold for $74,000 below list price.

A house on Southwalk sold for $35,900 below list price.

A house on Saddlebrook sold for $25,000 below list price.

A house on Lafayette sold for $30,000 below list price.

A house on Kendra sold for $82,000 below list price.

13 homes were scheduled for foreclosure auction: 11/15/2007
17 homes had Notices of Default filed: 11/15/2007
4 homes sold per MLS: 11/15/2007
19 new listings: 11/15/2007

Next chart is the average dropping in value in the last 91 days (from: 12/3/2007) compared to the same period 1-year ago, by house size.