Archive for the ‘Real Estate Values’ Category

Recent Moreno Valley home sales: 2/22/2008
Not taken originally from MLS

So what am I seeing:  mostly REO sales; more FHA financing, no longer 100% financing which was the norm 2 years ago.  Big losses of value.  The lowest sales price of these recent sales is $150,000 – but there are currently 26 pending sales where the house was listed below $150,000.  And 45 single family homes now listed at $150,000 or less – with an average house size of: 1012 square feet (average at $140 per square foot).  In the most recent week of Moreno Valley Notices of Default – there were 56 homes; which is about average.  Compared to about 2 weeks of sales (above) that is a ratio of / about: 6 NODs for every house sold.

$150,000	REO	2/6/2008	95% conv	1149Sqft	$130.55 per Sqft
$235,000		6/2004
lost $85,000 in 44 months = – $1932 per month
$175,000	REO	2/14/2008	80% conv	852Sqft	$205.40 per Sqft
$244,000		3/2005
lost $69,000 in 34 months = – $2029 per month
$189,000	REO	2/7/2008	95% conv	1422Sqft	$132.91 per Sqft
$350,000		6/1/2006
lost $161,000 in 20 month = – $8050 per month
$190,500	REO	2/11/2008	98.6 FHA	1526Sqft	$124.84 per Sqft
$270,000		8/1/2004
lost $79,500 in 42 months = – $1893 per month
$200,000	REO	2/5/2008	98.4% FHA	1335Sqft	$149.81 per Sqft
$107,000		8/1/2000
$215,000	REO	2/1/2008	CASH	1868Sqft	$115.10 per Sqft
$379,000		3/1/2006
lost $164,000 in 23 months = – $7130 per month
$234,000	REO	2/13/2008	90% conv	960Sqft	$243.75 per Sqft
$315,000		3/1/2006
lost $81,000 in 23 months = – $3522 per month
$235,000	REO	2/8/2008	CASH	1571Sqft	$149.59 per Sqft
$309,000		1/1/2005
lost $74,000 in 37 months = – $2000 per month
$270,000		2/1/2008	94% FHA	1623Sqft	$166.36 per Sqft
Not an REO or a short sale
$290,000	REO	2/1/2008	98.4% FHA	1821Sqft	$159.25 per Sqft
$152,000		8/1/2001
$293,000	REO	2/5/2008	90% conv	2141Sqft	$136.85 per Sqft
$300,000		2/8/2008	100% VA	1743Sqft	$172.12 per Sqft
$221,000		10/1/2003
$300,000	REO	2/5/2008	67% conv	1988Sqft	$150.91 per Sqft
$465,000		3/1/2006
lost $165,000 in 23 months = – $7174 per month
$332,500	REO	2/8/2008	75% conv	1792Sqft	$185.55 per Sqft
$460,000		7/1/2006
lost $127,500 in 19 months = – $6710 per month
$340,000		2/11/2008	90% conv	1865Sqft	$182.31 per Sqft
Sold outside MLS: Buyer / Seller had the same last name
$352,000		2/5/2008	98.5% FHA	1885Sqft	$186.74 per Sqft
$155,000		11/1/2002
Seller & listing agent had the same name – lowest list price $9000 below sales price
$360,000	REO	2/13/2008	80% conv	2778Sqft	$129.59 per Sqft
$515,000		6/1/2006
lost $155,000 in 20 months = – $7750 per month
$387,500	REO	2/4/2008	80% conv	2580Sqft	$150.19 per Sqft
$499,000		5/1/2005
lost $111,500 in 45 months = – $2478 per month

It’s a Tough Real Estate World

1-28-2008

Last night on 60 minutes there was a major segment on the sub-prime problem.  They talked to one couple who are having problems with their adjusting mortgage – their only option (they believe) is to walk away.  They were looking at Stockton, California as a foreclosure hotspot using: www.foreclosureradar.com.  I went to the site the Moreno Valley map is jam packed with pre-foreclosure, foreclosure and lender owned properties.  They are using www.zillow.com as the source for current values of the listed properties.  I have found zillow is not reporting the current (real) values in Moreno Valley.

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Report from DataQuick (1-22-2008) found the number of mortgage defaults in California in the fourth quarter of 2007 was the highest in 15 years.  They reported the statewide median home price hit a high of $484,000 last March, going down to $402,000 at the end of the year.  Most of the loans in default originated in August to October 2006.  For Riverside County the default numbers were from 4528 in the 4th quarter of 2006 to 9913 in the 4th quarter of 2007.

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A homeowner is suing her real estate agent for she believes the agent mislead her about the true value of the home she purchased.  The case goes to trial today in North San Diego County.  The agent claims the buyers did not do their due diligence, the buyers claimed they trusted the real estate agent – who not only sold them the house, but also worked as a loan broker.  Requests to see the appraisal were stalled, thus the appraiser was also sued, but settled.

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On Friday 1/18/2007 a vice president of a collapsed subprime mortgage lender (Fieldstone Mortgage) jumped to his death, after apparently after killing his wife in a murder-suicide.

Moreno Valley Real Estate Market report: 1/18/2008

Sales Data

Between 12/27/2007 and 12/30/2007 there where 55 new Notices of Default for Moreno Valley homes.  In the same time period there were 13 new pending sales and 15 closed sales.  The average sold price per square foot was: $143 and the average list price of the pending sales is even lower at: $135 per square foot.

Since 1/1/2008 there have been 260 new listings in the Moreno Valley MLS – with an average list price per square foot of the single family homes at: $152 per square foot.  In January 2007 95 homes sold in Moreno Valley per MLS – with an average sales price per square foot of: $207.

Per Data Quick reports the median sales price per square foot for December 2007 (using all 4 zip codes) was: $157.
For December 2006 the median was at: $237 per square foot.
On Average home price in Moreno Valley went down 26.7% between December 2006 and December 2007.

New Stuff from DataQuick – December 2007

For Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego and Ventura Counties: December marked the lowest number of total home sales over the 19 years of Data Quick reporting.

“The median price paid for a Southland home was $425,000 last month, the lowest since $420,000 in February 2005.”  And “15.8% below the $505,000 peak reached last spring and summer.”

For Riverside County – the rate of December 2007 sales against December 2006 was down 44.9% and median home prices dropped from $432,000 to $355,000 (-17.8%).

Following chart is the median sales prices for each December from 1990 to 2007 – for the 4 Moreno Valley zip codes

Next chart is the number of total home sales for December since 2000.

Moreno Valley End of Year 2007 Home Sales Data

First chart is the number of homes listed for sale: 12/30/2007
By list price, also showing the number of those homes that are Vacant

There are a total of 2247 single family homes for sale
1093 are vacant – which is 48.6% (almost half)

68 of the total number of listings per MLS are owner occupied with a Notice of Default filed – add that to the number of vacant homes (1093) equals 1161 homes that need to sell.

121 homes sold since: 11/1/2007 (= 2 per day) at that rate it would take 590.5 days or over 19 months to sell the 1161 homes that need to sell (or over 3 years to sell all the homes now listed for sale).  Last year in the same time period 295 homes sold (= almost 5 sales per day compared to the current rate of 2 sales per day).

The average sales price since 11/1/2007 is $289,458 or $159 per Sq’
Last year in the same time period was $389,446 or $218 per Sq’ – an average drop of almost $100,000 exactly and $59 per square foot.  Which is a 1-year decline in values of about 26%.

Moreno Valley DataQuick numbers for November 2007 – indicate home prices in Moreno Valley went down 21% in 1-year with a current average price per square foot at: $168.

Only 48 homes sold through MLS (2007) – last November (2006) 151 homes sold.

23 of the current sales sold for $5000 to $82,000 below the final list price.

A house on Country Flower sold for $59,990 below list price.

A house on Delcresta sold for $74,000 below list price.

A house on Southwalk sold for $35,900 below list price.

A house on Saddlebrook sold for $25,000 below list price.

A house on Lafayette sold for $30,000 below list price.

A house on Kendra sold for $82,000 below list price.

13 homes were scheduled for foreclosure auction: 11/15/2007
17 homes had Notices of Default filed: 11/15/2007
4 homes sold per MLS: 11/15/2007
19 new listings: 11/15/2007

Next chart is the average dropping in value in the last 91 days (from: 12/3/2007) compared to the same period 1-year ago, by house size.

We’re #1! What? That’s Not A Good Thing?

Riverside, San Bernardino, Ontario Home Prices: 60% Chance They’ll Be Lower in Two Years

The Fall 2007 PMI Mortgage Insurance’s Economic Real Estate Trends – just came out. “PMI’s U.S. Market Risk Index ranks the likelihood of home price declines in two years for the nation’s 381 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). It is based on economic factors including home price appreciation, volatility, employment, and affordability.”

“The average risk score for the 50 largest MSAs remains near an all-time high at 329, meaning there is a 32.9% chance home prices across the country will decline. The minor reduction in risk is the result of declining home prices, which slightly improved affordability. Despite this drop, the risk for future price declines among the nation’s largest MSAs remains high. The largest concentrations of risk are in California, Florida, Las Vegas, NV, and Phoenix, AZ.”

Ranked #1 (as the most risky) is: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA at 608 (= 60.8% chance that home prices will be lower in 2-years from now). And we stand alone in the #1 spot.

In the Number 2 spot are: (with risk scores in the 500s)

• Las Vegas
• Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine
• Phoenix
• L.A.-Long Beach-Glendale
• Areas in Florida
• Sacamento area
• San Diego area
• Oakland-Fremont-Hayward
• More areas in Florida

Moreno Valley Real Estate Market Snapshot: November 2007

In this Market Snapshot we take a look at what is going on inside the Moreno Valley real estate market at a quick glance.  We take a look at how many homes are currently listed in 3 separate categories.  We look at how many homes have sold in the last 31 days within each category as well as how long it would take to get rid of the inventory at the current rate of sales.

Homes: 1000 to 1200 square feet in size

185 listed – average price: $265,132 / per square foot: $239
9 sales in the last 31 days – at that rate it would take 20.5 months to sell the inventory
25% of the listings are now priced between: $169,900 and $235,000

Homes: 1400 to 1600 square feet in size

369 listed – average price: $302,479 / per square foot: $201
9 sales in the last 31 days – at that rate it would take 41 months to sell the inventory
25% of the listings are now priced between: $179,000 and $264,000

Homes: 1800 to 2000 square feet in size

204 listed – average price: $351,823 / per square foot: $186
8 sales in the last 31 days – at that rate it would take 25.5 months to sell the inventory
25% of the listings are now priced between: $189,900 and $314,000

There are 74 pending sales in the past 31 days

List prices of the pending sales range from: $174,900 to $681,801
Houses range in size from: 820 to 4288 square feet
Homes were built between 1960 and 2007
Average list price: $313,183 / per square foot: $161

25% of the pending sales were listed for: $245,000 or less 

Per MLS: 8 homes closed escrow

2297 square foot house on Cattail for: $475,000  ($206.79 per square foot)
It was first listed for sale 8/10/2006 for $749,900 – with the following price reductions: $715,000 (9/20/2006); $685,000 (10/24/2006); $633,000 (12/18/2006); $599,999 (2/25/2007); $569,990 (5/14/2007); $559,000 (6/21/2007); $549,000 (7/12/2007); $555,000 (7/12/2007); $545,000 (8/22/2007); $525,000 (8/30/2007); $524,900 (8/31/2007) – going pending on 10/22/2007 – with a final sales price $274,000 less then original list price 14 months back.

3771 square foot new home on Salt Mission for $455,000 ($120.66 per square foot)
First listed in MLS 2/13/2007 for $561,990 – selling in 203 days for $106,990 less.  New owner got almost 100% financing.

1858 square foot new home on Quail Creek for $342,500 ($184.33 per square foot)
First listed in MLS 6/8/2007 for $402,990 – selling in 49 days for $60,490 less.

2677 square foot home on Zaharias for: $320,000 ($119.54 per square foot)
This was a lender REO with a prior sale 3/31/2005 for $460,000 (selling now for $140,000 less in 31 months = a loss of value of $4516 per month).  House was first listed for sale 3/16/2006 for $505,000 – taking 288 days to sell with 13 price reductions, and selling for $19,000 below the final list price.

1795 square foot home on Cherrylaurel for: $270,000 ($150.42 per square foot)
A lender REO originally listed for sale 11/27/2006 at $410,000 – on the market 256 days – selling in the end for $140,000 less then the original list price.

1070 square foot 2 bedroom, 2 bath home sold for $265,000 ($247.66 per square foot) on Red Mahogany was originally listed for sale 11/22/2006 at $325,000 – taking 304 days to sell – in the end for $60,000 below original list price.  New owner purchased with 100% financing.

1308 square foot home on Shady Glen for: $253,000 ($193.43 per square foot)
It took 90 days to sell with an original list price of $289,900 – per MLS seller paid $10,000 of buyer’s closing costs with 100% financing.

1420 square foot home on Hartland for: $247,000 ($173.94 per square foot)
Another lender REO with a prior sale on 2/27/2006 for $385,000 – with is $138,000 more than recent sale 20 months later = a loss of $6900 a month. It was originally listed on 29 days at: $259,900 – with no price reductions, but sold for $12,900 below the list price.

4 homes went pending

A lender REO 2034 square foot home on Snowbell – with a final list price of: $309,900
Prior sale $440,000 (5/12/2006) – a decline of $130,100 in 17 months (= $7653 per month).  Has been listed 192 days – starting at $414,900.

1317 square foot home on Rena – with a final list price of: $249,900 – listed 108 days with an original price of $270,000.

A lender REO 1512 square foot home on Gorrion – with a final list price of: $247,500
Prior sale 8/11/2006 for $420,000 (that is a drop of  $172,500 in 14 months = $12,321 per month).  The final list price at that time was $372,000 (so it looks like the purchase price was elevated $48,000 in 2006 – with 100% financing – I think that might be mortgage fraud).

Lender REO 1261 square foot home on Mead – with a final list price of: $234,900
Originally listed for sale 7/24/2006 at $369,999 – for a total of 195 days.

14 Notices of Default filed

On the following streets: Calle Agua; Fay: Beal; Dabney; Finley; Tonadilla; Barley; Venetian; Morningside; Myers; Marston; Woodpecker; Canvasback; and Cleveland Bay.

Conclusions and More

Of the 12 sold and pending sales on day in Moreno Valley – 6 (1/2) are lender REOs.  2 of the ones that sold (1/4) had 100% financing.  2 of the sold homes were new homes.  Of the 12 solds and pending sales only 1 sold in less than 1 month; 4 total sales under 100 days; 3 took between 100 and 200 days to sell; 3 sold between 200 and 300 days; and 1 took 304 days to sell and the home on Cattail took 428 days to sell.  The average time on the market was: 180 days (6 months).  The chart below shows the number of closed sales, pending sales and notices of default filed on one day for Moreno Valley homes: 10/26/2007.

Data Quick just came out with the October 2007 sales data – it is not good!  Only 81 homes sold in Moreno Valley for the month (in Oct 2006 289 homes sold) – with prices down in 1 year:

18.4% for zip code 92551                    17% for zip code 92553           23.3% for zip code 92555
23.5% for zip code 92557

That on average equals a drop in prices in 1-year (October 2006 to October 2007) in Moreno Valley of 20.9% or on average 1.745% per month – on a $400,000 house that would be almost $7000 per month or almost $84,000 in 1 year.  The average sales price per square foot is now: $186.

This chart is median Moreno Valley home prices from Dqnews for every October since 1988

This chart is for zip code 92557 since January 2005 for the median sales prices – with a trend line showing the increase in prices and then the decline.

Taking 3 of the recent sales and pulling model match sales – this is what I found:

For the 2677 square foot home on Zaharias sales by date =
8/2002             $257,900                     up        $62,100  in 5 years, 2 months
1/2003             $282,000                     up        $38,000 in 4 years, 9 months
10/2004           $449,900                     down    $129,900 in 3 years
10/2005           $477,000                     down    $157,000 in 2 years
2/2006             $479,900                     down    $159,000 in 1 year, 8 months
1/2007             $424,500                     down    $104,500 in 9 months
10/2007           $320,000         down    $159,900 from the high in 20 months = – $7995 per month

For the 1795 square foot home on Cherrylaurel
2/2005             $350,000
4/2005             $359,000
4/2005             $367,000
5/2005             $369,000
5/2005             $375,000
6/2005             $369,000
6/2005             $369,000
7/2005             $380,000
8/2005             $384,900
8/2005             $387,500
8/2005             $390,000
8/2005             $399,000
9/2005             $415,000
10/2005           $398,999
12/2005           $411,000
3/2006             $389,000
3/2006             $419,000
3/2006             $420,000
5/2006             $419,900
5/2006             $429,000         high      up $79,000 in 1 year, 3 months = + $5267 per month
6/2006             $409,000
10/2006           $415,000
10/2006           $415,000
3/2007             $369,900
10/2007           $335,000
10/2007           $310,000
10/2007           $270,000         down $159,000 in 1year, 4 months = – $9937.50 a month

For the 1070 square foot home on Red Mahogany
8/2002             $127,500
11/2002           $129,600
9/2003             $145,000
4/2004             $210,000
7/2004             $210,000
11/2004           $225,000
11/2004           $250,000
6/2005             $270,000
11/2005           $285,000
11/2005           $288,000
12/2005           $290,500
6/2006             $314,000
9/2006             $320,000         high      up $192,500 in 4 years, 1 month = + $3928 per month
10/2007           $265,000         down    $55,000 in 1 year, 1 month = – $4231 per month

On 11/30/2007 there were 88 single family homes listed for sale in Moreno Valley priced at $200,000 or less; with an average price per square foot of: $178; with 12 pending sales – with an average list price per square foot of: $164; but only 2 sales since 1-1-2007 for $200,000 or less.  Looking at the data – we see a large inventory of homes for sale, long marketing times, few sales per month, dropping prices, under cutting prices and future foreclosures – insuring prices will continue downward for some time, until the number of home sales per day adequately exceeds the number of new listings per day.

Moreno Valley Home Prices 2000-2007

Chart of the median home prices for the 4 Moreno Valley zip codes from September 2000 to September 2007 from dqnews.com.

What Direction are Inland Empire Home Prices Going?

On October 10, 2007 – the California Association of Realtors reported their Housing Forecast for 2008. They predict (keep in mind they tend to be very conservative in a downward trending market) prices on average will go down 4% statewide; with the number of homes sold expected to drop 9%.

CAR indicates that home prices in Riverside / San Bernardino area hit a peak in January 2007 – with a price of: $415,160 – dropping 9.2% to an August 2007 median of: $377,130. That is a loss of about $5400 per month.

The fall issue of Economic Real Estate Trends, from PMI predicts home prices in the Riverside / San Bernardino / Ontario, California will have a 60% likelihood of being lower in 2 years.

An article in the Wall Street Journal (10/11/2007) reports on “The United States of Subprime”. WSJ estimated that high-rate mortgages accounted for 29% of the total of mortgage loans in 2006, up from 16% in 2004. Per the map of our area of California 40% of mortgage loans made between 2004 and 2006 were subprime. “High-rate loans are those that carry interest rates of 3 percentage points or more over U.S. Treasurys of comparable durations.” “As home prices accelerated across the country over the past decade, more affluent families turned to high-rate loans to buy expensive homes they could not have qualified under conventional lending standards.”

“We had an aggressive home-mortgage industry trying to get people into homes they couldn’t afford at a time when home prices were very high. It turned out to be a house of cards, says Karl Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College. We’re in the early stages of the cleanup.”

The WSJ article estimated there is $600 billion of adjustable-rate subprime loans due to adjust to higher interest rates by the end of 2008; resulting in more loans likely to fail in the future.

At the annual Convention of the Mortgage Bankers Association it was reported (10/16/2007) by The Associated Press that “U.S. housing prices will continue to decline at least through the end of next year and may not begin creeping upward again until 2010, executives from the biggest mortgage financiers said Monday.”

Thomas Lund of Fannie Mae said: “I think this year we will see a 2 percent decline in national home prices, and we’re projected about a 4 percent decline next year”.

Patricia Cook of Freddie Mae said: “investors of mortgage-backed securities likely will remain wary of committing more money to the cash-hungry market until they see a slowing in foreclosures. But that’s unlikely in the short-term, since many at-risk homeowners will see their adjustable mortgages reset to higher interest rates in coming months and years.”

12 Moreno Valley foreclosure homes are scheduled for auction: Nov. 3, 2007 at Fairplex, in Pomona. Homes are available for viewing: 10/20 and 10/21 from: 10am – 5pm. Specific information on these homes in the Bayer Facts section. Of the 12 homes going up for auction – 8 had prior sales in the last 29 months compared to recent list prices – values have gone down per month at least:

• 29 months down $1831 per month
• 25 months down $3804 per month
• 33 months down $1275 per month
• 24 months down $5754 per month
• 24 months down $467 per month
• 17 months down $3829 per month
• 15 months down $5006 per month
• 14 months down $4642 per month

Information obtained from First American Title of Notices of Default (the first step toward foreclosure) filed against Moreno Valley homes on 9/21 (18); 9/24 (19); 9/27 (17); 9/28 (18). If you figure 18 a day times 260 week days (about a year) that would be 4680 homes headed for foreclosure or about 9% of the 52,000 Moreno Valley homes. The glut of that many home loans in trouble now – could only result in an over-supply of homes for sale, in the future.

Subprime loans are causing havoc across America, and the problem is ongoing as more adjustable rate loans have mortgage payment increases upcoming. Easy lending put many families into homes beyond their means, and pushed up home prices to unsustainable levels. Once prices started to drop many homeowners find they can not sell their homes for what they owe and can not refinance out of their bad loans. Many of those homes will end up as foreclosures. The rate of home sales is now at 20 year lows in Moreno Valley at a time when the number of homes for sale grows and will continue to grow. Home prices in this area are expected to continue on a downward trek, while potential buyers are looking for bargains or waiting for prices to hit bottom.